Tensions simmering between PAS and Bersatu—the two main pillars of the Perikatan Nasional coalition—may significantly weaken the ruling alliance's electoral prospects in Kedah, with political observers cautioning that infighting could cost Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor the overwhelming victory his faction appears to be pursuing.
Awang Azman Pawi, a political analyst familiar with Peninsular Malaysian dynamics, contends that the widening gap between the Islamist party and the numerically smaller Bersatu outfit risks fragmenting the voter base that has sustained Perikatan Nasional's hold on the northern state. Rather than presenting a unified front to capture as many seats as possible, the coalition risks appearing fractious and incoherent to the electorate, potentially allowing opposition groupings to exploit the discord and reclaim ground lost in previous contests.
The core of the disagreement centres on resource allocation and candidate placement within the Perikatan Nasional machinery. Bersatu, despite its reduced parliamentary presence and local organisational footprint compared to PAS, has sought to maintain meaningful representation in state legislative assemblies where the coalition governs. PAS, emboldened by grassroots mobilisation and consistent electoral performance, has grown increasingly assertive about its right to dominate candidate selection and seat distribution, viewing itself as the natural senior partner in the coalition.
For Malaysian voters, particularly in states like Kedah where the composition of government directly affects development priorities, healthcare policy, and administrative appointments, such internal wrangling sends a troubling signal about leadership coherence. Sanusi, while personally popular and credited with competent stewardship, cannot entirely insulate himself from the broader coalition dynamics that determine which parties control which portfolios and direct which resources to which communities.
Awang Azman argues that voter confusion resulting from competing campaign messages and unclear party hierarchy could translate into scattered support across constituencies. Voters accustomed to voting for a dominant coalition partner might instead split their ballots, either abstaining or lending support to opposition candidates who present clearer alternatives. In tightly contested seats—particularly urban constituencies where Perikatan Nasional's appeal is narrower—such divisions could prove decisive.
Historically, Malaysian coalition politics has demonstrated that unified messaging and disciplined candidate selection matter enormously for electoral performance. The 2022 national election results and subsequent state contests in various jurisdictions showed that coalitions perceived as divided or quarrelsome consistently underperformed relative to their polling numbers and organisational capacity. Conversely, coalitions that projected cohesion and clear governance agendas typically exceeded expectations.
The broader context of Perikatan Nasional's federal position also influences state-level dynamics. With the coalition no longer holding national government, Kedah takes on heightened symbolic importance as a showcase of Perikatan Nasional's capability to govern effectively. A fractious, divided campaign in the state would undermine national party messaging and embolden opposition voices questioning the coalition's fundamental viability.
Bersatu's particular vulnerability in this equation stems from its reliance on Kedah state positions to maintain political relevance. The party has limited numerical strength in Parliament and regional assemblies elsewhere, making its Kedah presence disproportionately important for party morale, funding networks, and cadre retention. Perceived marginalisation or inadequate candidate allocation could trigger internal defections and organisational atrophy that would take years to remedy.
PAS, by contrast, possesses deeper entrenchment in Kedah society through years of grassroots Islamic educational networks, youth organisations, and community welfare programmes. The party feels less urgency to accommodate Bersatu and more confidence that it can campaign effectively without significant coalition support. This asymmetry of organisational strength translates into asymmetry of negotiating power, tilting outcomes in PAS's favour within Perikatan Nasional councils.
Analysts note that Sanusi, as Menteri Besar, occupies an inherently delicate position. He must balance his personal leadership ambitions and desire for a strong electoral mandate against coalition solidarity requirements that may constrain his preferred candidate selections. Public pressure from rank-and-file party members demanding certain seats can force his hand in ways that alienate coalition partners, creating cycles of recrimination that damage the whole enterprise.
For Southeast Asian observers, Kedah's political trajectory illustrates broader regional patterns of coalition fragility. In Malaysia and neighbouring jurisdictions, alliances built primarily on opposition to other coalitions—rather than on shared policy platforms or long-term governance vision—tend to buckle under internal stress. Without a compelling joint agenda uniting diverse partners, coalition discipline erodes when electoral prospects appear secure.
The coming months will reveal whether Awang Azman's cautions materialise in measurable electoral setbacks or whether, conversely, PAS and Bersatu manage to contain their differences sufficiently to present a functioning partnership to voters. The stakes extend beyond Kedah alone, as the state's election results will reverberate through Perikatan Nasional's positioning ahead of future national contests.
